According to a report by Cai Lian She on January 7 (reporter: Luo Yichen), news of rising refrigerant prices has recently surfaced, boosting expectations for the future market and also drawing attention to fluorite—a key raw material. “Currently, the bullish sentiment in the refrigerant market remains strong. Inventory levels among companies and distributors are relatively low, and supply of certain refrigerant varieties continues to be tight, prompting retailers to raise their quoted prices.”

According to interviews conducted by a reporter from Cai Lian She, although fluorite prices have remained unchanged in the past two days and manufacturers’ expectations for future price increases are not particularly strong, there is still a certain time lag between the resumption of operations in the fluorite sector and that of its downstream products—hydrofluoric acid and refrigerants. If demand for refrigerants continues to improve, fluorite supply could tighten in February or March, potentially triggering a round of price hikes at that time.

“Currently, we haven’t heard of any changes in fluorite prices. We’re not sure whether prices will shift after February—so we’ll just have to wait and see. Some industry analysts believe that downstream sectors will ramp up production after the Lunar New Year,” a representative from a fluorite manufacturer told a reporter from Cai Lian She. According to market data, on January 6, the average ex-factory price for domestic 97% wet fluorite powder was 3,662 yuan per ton, reaching a relatively high level historically. Prices have remained stable for several months running.

In the just-concluded year 2024, both refrigerant and fluorite prices showed strong performance. Refrigerant R32 started at 18,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2024 and has been steadily rising ever since, with the latest price nearing the 45,000 yuan per ton mark. Meanwhile, fluorite powder prices rose from 3,400 yuan per ton at the start of the year to nearly 4,000 yuan per ton at their peak. Against this backdrop, the anticipated robust demand in the refrigerant market has had a positive impact on upstream fluorite.

“Fluorite mining typically resumes relatively late after the Chinese New Year. Processing plants generally don’t start operations until after the 15th day of the first lunar month, while mines often wait even longer—some mines, guided by traditional practices, won’t fully resume work until the second day of the second lunar month, when the dragon is said to ‘raise its head.’ Moreover, transportation in northern mining regions usually doesn’t return to normal until around March. As a result, during February and March, the supply of fluorite on the market tends to be relatively tight,” said Chang Xiaoyue, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, to a reporter from Cai Lian She. Both manufacturers and traders currently hold low inventories of fluorite. If demand for refrigerants remains robust after the Spring Festival, the full resumption of production could boost the operating rate of upstream hydrofluoric acid, thereby further stimulating demand for fluorite. It’s worth noting that hydrofluoric acid, which occupies the midstream position, is classified as a hazardous chemical and is a typical industry characterized by low inventory levels.

The reporter from Cai Lian She noted that fluorite market conditions began to pick up across the board starting from the second half of 2022. In the two years since then, fluorite prices have experienced a noticeable surge each year following the Spring Festival—reasons for which consistently point to the short-term supply tightness caused by delayed start-ups, as mentioned by the analysts cited earlier. Looking ahead to 2025, the market generally believes that, driven by increasingly stringent environmental and safety regulations, the supply side of fluorite will remain firmly supported. It has become a consensus that fluorite prices are "easier to rise than to fall," and many research institutions are optimistic about the continued upward trend in fluorite price levels.